Venezuela at a crossroads or, in other words, between the sword and the wall. Luis Almagro, the Secretary General of the Organization of American States, expressed once again his concern about Venezuela’s political and social situation. In a 75-page document delivered to the president of the Latin American organization, and made public through social networks, he suggested suspending—not expelling—Venezuela, should President Maduro’s government refuse to allow general elections within 30 days.
As expected, the ultimatum of the Secretary General of the OAS provoked the anger of the Venezuelan government. The reaction was immediate. Through a communiqué, the Foreign Ministry, with its peculiar language, expressed «the most profound repudiation» of what it described as «illegitimate and illicit report.» It did not use arguments to deny what the Secretary General of the OAS affirmed; instead, it tried to disqualify the former foreign minister of Uruguay as «a known enemy of Venezuela’s people». Nothing new! In addition, President Maduro has repeatedly called into question the usefulness of the OAS. Like the late President Chavez, he believes that the Latin American organization responds «to the interests of the empire and world capitalism.»
The current situation presents itself more than complex to President Maduro’s government. Diplomatically, Venezuela is today more vulnerable and weaker. The pieces of the cards-house built by President Chávez are falling one behind the other. The «Chavista revolution,» which once seemed an unstoppable tsunami, capable of changing the political equilibrium of our hemisphere, now seems to have become a flood without the necessary push to transform power relations in Latin America. In Argentina, Kirchnerism was defeated by the Macri-Michetti formula; In Brazil, the government of President Dilma Rousseff did not resist corruption allegations, and the storm unleashed by the «Odebrech Case» has uncovered a network of unprecedented political decomposition. In Bolivia, Evo Morales’s ambitious aspirations were re-dimensioned by a referendum that denied the president of the Republic the possibility of running for office again; while, in Ecuador, Rafael Correa’s candidate, Lenin Moreno, has been forced to go to a second round, that experts in the subject interpret as a dangerous examination and, in any case, a political setback for the ruling party.
A complex and confusing context. Increasingly alone, and no longer enjoying a strong position, Venezuela faces criticism from Almagro, who calls for the implementation of the «Democratic Charter.»
Perhaps it is true that, as the Minister of Penitentiary Services Iris Varela pointed out, Venezuela passed the Human Rights Universal Periodic examination of the United Nations’ Human Rights Council; however, it is also true that the Venezuelan delegation has rejected all the recommendations made on the most controversial issues. The usual ones; to say: the lack of freedom of speech, the existence of political prisoners, arbitrary detentions, lack of independence of the public powers, the siege of the National Assembly, and the humanitarian crisis, which expresses itself through the lack of food and medicines.
The Venezuelan delegation said that restrictions on the free exercise of rights such as freedom of speech, information, assembly and peaceful association do not exist in the country, because they are prohibited. It also rejected questions about food and health —a chronic shortage of food and medicines— as being a «misrepresentation, unreality or falsehood». In addition, it has reaffirmed its refusal to allow a delegation from the «Commission» to travel to the Country.
For Venezuela to become suspended from the OAS, 18 out of the 35 member states will have to vote affirmatively on the motion; making it therefore very difficult for Almagro’s suggestion to become a fact. It is hard, but not impossible. Analysts believe that much will depend on the diplomatic framework that will be built with Petrocaribe’s member countries, which depend on Venezuelan oil.
Venezuela’s suspension from the OAS, or even the opening of a debate on the subject, will obviously have its repercussions. At the international level, it will be a serious blow to the credibility of President Maduro’s government. «Chavismo» has always taken particular care of its international image. This has been done particularly by President Chávez, who intended to project himself as a continental leader. At the national level, it will instead deliver new arguments to stimulate the nationalism that still nourishes President Maduro’s demagogic speech.
In terms of economy, the suspension of Venezuela from the OAS does not appear to be of particular importance. The Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (Inter-American Development Bank) has played a peripheral role in the country. To be sure, it will hamper Venezuela’s access to international credit, which, it should be noted, has been significantly reduced despite Venezuela having been an excellent debtor.
Should the Secretary General of the OAS’ suggestions become accepted, the siege on President Maduro’s government will become even tighter. International isolation, however, will not be enough to bring about a change of attitude and policies; to defeat the authoritarian vocation of those who hold today the reins of the country. Once again, the most difficult task will fall on the Opposition. Leaders of the Mesa de la Unidad (Table of Unity) should file their personal aspirations and design a long-term program that will allow the country’s governance. They will have to take advantage of external pressures to mediate, and achieve a «transitional government». It is no longer just a matter of rebuilding the economic infrastructure destroyed in the course of two decades of bad governance. Maybe this is the easiest thing to do. What will be difficult and complex will be to heal the wounds and to restore to society the ethics and morals that have gone astray on the way.